India's population will start decline by by 2050 Analysis of NHFS-5 report

NHFS (National family health survey) is a survey conducted by government of India under the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. The NHFS survey provides state and National Information for India on fertility, Infant and child mortality also provide crucial information related to family planning maternal and Child Health, reproductive health, nutrition, anaemia, utilisation and quality of Health and Family planning service.

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) means the number of babies produced by a woman during her fertility age i.e 19-59 years of age. According to an NHFS-5 (2019-21) total fertility rate of country is reduced to 2.0 earlier it was 2.2 during (2015-16). In rural India Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is 2.1 whereas in urban India 1.6 is the Total Fertility Rate (TFR).

However all the states are doing well in reducing Total Fertility Rate (TFR) but few states that is Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are too far from the national average. Bihar have a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.4 in urban and 3.1 in rural area, and  average Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is 3.0. Whereas in Uttar Pradesh average Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is 2.4 in urban areas it is1.9 and in rural areas it is 2.5.

Meghalaya also has a higher Total Fertility Rate (TFR) but Meghalaya is too small in area as compared to Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Meghalaya have an average Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.9, in urban area of Meghalaya Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is 1.6 and in rural area it is of 3.3. Jharkhand is also doing good in its average Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is 2.3, in rural area it is 2.5 and in urban area it is 1.6.

Replacement Rate is 2.1 that is if all countries TFR goes down to 2.1 then in the coming years the population of country will shrink. If TFR is greater than 2.1 then the population of country will increase.

Fertility rate of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan is 2.0 earlier and it was 2.3 and 2.4 respectively. This shows that lot of improvement has been happen and people themselves preferred to have less babies. States such as Maharashtra, Punjab, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh have a fertility rate which is below the replacement rate it means in the coming years a lot migration may take place from state like Uttar Pradesh Bihar to these States as they will require workforce.

Maharashtra state is 1.7 earlier in 2015-16 it was 1.91. Punjab’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is 1.6, Andhra Pradesh Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is 1.7 and Karnataka Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is 1.7.

But the shocking fact is that West Bengal which  has a preconception of a very crowded Sate. But in reality West Bengal’s fertility rate is 1.6. During election days many propagandas were spread that West Bengal’s muslim population is increasing and these are reason is Bangladeshi immigrants. However the truth is that West Bengal’s TFR decrease from 1.8 in 2015-16 to 1.6 in 2019-21.

Goa  has the lowest fertility rate of 1.3 also Goa is a small state and it economy is mostly driven by tourism. Kerala TFRis increased from 1.6 in 2015-16 to 1.8 in 2019-21 which is a good sign as Kerala is trying to maintain its Total Fertility Rate (TFR) near the replacement rate.

The conclusion of this NHFS report is that India will not face a problem of population explosion in near future rather it will face a population crisis like the European countries and developed Asian countries facing now. But India has time according to International reports India's population will peak by 2050 at 160 crore after that a gradual decline will happen. India has opportunity to use population dividend as average age of Indian is 28 years only. Most of the developed country use their population dividend in right time by creating opportunities for its youth investing in research and development sector and health care.

key points of NHFS 2019-21

• Sex ratio at birth for children that is females per 1000 males is 929 earlier in 2015-16 it was 919
• Sex ratio of total population (female per 1000 male) is 1020 earlier in 2015-16 it was 991
• Obesity is becoming a problem in the whole country 24% of women are obese whereas 22.9 %  males are obese. The criteria set for calculating obese in the report is BMI > 25.0 kg/m²
  
• The problem of underweight is also mention in the report 18.7%  women where underweight whereas 16.2 % man wear under wait underweight. (underweigh= BMI < 18.5 kg/m²)
• A large population is starved for the micronutrients 67% children of 6-59 months are anameic. 57.2% women of age 15 to 49 years were anameic and 52.2 % pregnant woman's of age 15- 49 years were anameic.